书名：Thinking in BetsMakingSmarterDecisionsWhenYouDon'tHaveAlltheFacts
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
@ erer 有点虎头蛇尾 key takeaways是不要resulting；意识到归因到skill还是luck针对自己和别人常常有不同 @ Jonas 终于看完了……用德扑的方式看待生活中的选择还挺有意思的 @ Sunny 作者主要的观点就是：不要对过去做出的选择有所遗憾，因为糟糕的结果，需要不断地前行。里面用到了很多Thinking Fast and Slow里的心理概念。 @ 宝宝TWO 说的很有道理，而且也给了操作办法，好书！ @ Ray 其实这书跟扑克毫无关系，就是讲如何在不确定性下做决策且评估自己的决策。有些独到之处，但整体一般。 @ Serendipity 德扑世冠的书 – “It's as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.” @ cheryl Can't finish the whole book. Read 30% and lost interest. @ 爱丽丝不梦游 精华很受用，就是有点长篇大论。 @ CC Pig Blinkist @ 玫瑰可颂 保守派赌徒的学习心得