Crashed

书名:CrashedHowaDecadeofFinancialCrisesChangedtheWorld
作者:AdamTooze
译者:
ISBN:9780670024933
出版社:AllenLane
出版时间:2018-8-7
格式:epub/mobi/azw3/pdf
页数:704
豆瓣评分: 8.7

书籍简介:

From a prizewinning economic historian, an eye-opening reinterpretation of the 2008 economic crisis (and its ten-year aftermath) as a global event that directly led to the shockwaves being felt around the world today. In September 2008 President George Bush could still describe the financial crisis as an incident local to Wall Street. In fact it was a dramatic caesura of global significance that spiraled around the world, from the financial markets of the UK and Europe to the factories and dockyards of Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, forcing a rearrangement of global governance. In the United States and Europe, it caused a fundamental reconsideration of capitalist democracy, eventually leading to the war in the Ukraine, the chaos of Greece, Brexit, and Trump. It was the greatest crisis to have struck Western societies since the end of the Cold War, but was it inevitable? And is it over? Crashed is a dramatic new narrative resting on original themes: the haphazard nature of economic development and the erratic path of debt around the world; the unseen way individual countries and regions are linked together in deeply unequal relationships through financial interdependence, investment, politics, and force; the ways the financial crisis interacted with the spectacular rise of social media, the crisis of middle-class America, the rise of China, and global struggles over fossil fuels. Finally, Tooze asks, given this history, what now are the prospects for a liberal, stable, and coherent world order?

作者简介:

Adam Tooze is the author of Wages of Destruction, winner of the Wolfson and Longman History Today Prize. He is the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of History at Columbia University. He formerly taught at Yale University, where he was Director of International Security Studies, and at the University of Cambridge. He has worked in executive development with several major corporations and contributed to the National Intelligence Council. He has written and reviewed for Foreign Affairs, the Financial Times, The Guardian, the Sunday Telegraph, The Wall Street Journal, Die Zeit, Sueddeutsche Zeitung, Tageszeitung and Spiegel Magazine, New Left Review, and the London Review of Books.

书友短评:

@ 3.1415926 one of the best researched and written books I've ever came across. Linking all major events mapping a global view with meaningful details. How did we end up here, how is one thing connected to another, what does everything mean, and where are we going? big questions well addressed with solid data and sound arguments @ Answer Lu I'm so sorry that I can't finish the book although I am interested in the crisis. I am fully lost in this long book and can't get useful and interesting information from it. It's too long to read. I just finished the 10%. @ Shawn 陆陆续续读了5个月的一本厚书,神作!读书笔记flag×2. 经济的事儿不单纯是经济的事儿,跟geopolitical alpha里的分析框架有些相似之处,更宏大也更有意思。

书籍目录

  • 为了在2016年初重振需求,北京启动了新一轮的信贷繁荣和财政刺激,同时着手清理扩张过度和产能过剩的重工业。北京恢复了对局面的掌控,向来以倡导市场自由闻名的西方媒体也无法掩饰它们的欣慰之情。《经济学人》评论道:“随着资金外流被堵住,大部分资金都流入了当地的房地产市场:房价飙升,先是在大城市,然后是其他地方。小型汽车的销售税降低了一半。由此可见,这些控制和刺激措施奏效了。”[10]受此影响,亚洲的大宗商品价格反弹,制造业大幅增长,将中国庞大的制造业从崩溃边缘拉了回来。全球通缩的威胁逐渐消退。
    —— 引自章节:第25章 未来的走向
  • 打算的。正如我们将在本书第一部分中看到的,美国内外的经济学家,包括这个时代的许多著名宏观经济学家都在批评布什政府,他们已经为灾难提前准备好了剧本:经济危机源于美国的双赤字,即预算赤字和贸易赤字,而双赤字导致美国对外债的依赖。布什政府推高的政府债务就是定时炸弹,早晚要爆炸。另一种说法认为2008年金融危机是英语国家的危机,18个月后,欧洲遭受的危机间接证明了这个说法。由于欧元区的政治与体制与美国不同,欧洲危机的发展路线也与美国不同。因此,历史叙事的逻辑似乎已经很清楚了,那就是欧洲危机紧接着美国危机爆发,两者各自有着独特的经济和政治逻辑。中国既不愿遭受外来投资突然停止的打击,也不愿向美国寻求帮助。为了抵御风险,北京在选择挂钩美元时,汇率没有定得过高,反而很低。这与20世纪五六十年代的日本和德国的做法如出一。2这种选择有利于出口导向型增长,但是也有自身的问题。对人民币估值过低,将使进口价格过高,降低中国人的生活水平。当中国对美国形成贸易顺差,购买美国政府债券时,资本正从贫穷的中国流入富裕的美国,资助美国人购买中国国内新的大工厂生产不仅如此,要维持人为制定的低汇率,这本身就是一场战争。从2000年到2009年,中国对美国的贸易顺差从830亿美元猛增至2270亿美元,为保持人民币对美元的低汇率,中国人民银行必须不断购买美元和出售人民币。为此只能增印人民币。在正常情况下,这可能导致国内通胀,失去竞争优势,甚至引发社会不稳定。因此为了“消除”人为干预市场的不良影响,中国人民银行要求中国的所有银行持有大规模的、不断增加的防御性储备金,从而有效地降低了流通中的货币量。这种应对方式只有凭借中国政府和商业精英之间相当紧密的关系才能维持,这种关系建立在商业精英对中国政府的依靠、后者对其的领导以及双方共贏的基础上。中国企业家及其所有者,从以出为主导的蓬勃发展热潮中获得…
    —— 引自章节:第1章 “错误的危机”
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