Narrative Economics

书名：Narrative EconomicsHowStoriesGoViralandDriveMajorEconomicEvents
作者：RobertJ.Shiller
译者：
ISBN：9780691182292
出版社：PrincetonUniversityPress
出版时间：2019-10-1
格式：epub/mobi/azw3/pdf
页数：288
豆瓣评分： 7.9

书籍简介：

From Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a new way to think about how popular stories help drive economic events In a world in which internet troll farms attempt to influence foreign elections, can we afford to ignore the power of viral stories to affect economies? In this groundbreaking book, Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller offers a new way to think about the economy and economic change. Using a rich array of historical examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that affect individual and collective economic behaviorâ€"what he calls "narrative economics"â€"has the potential to vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises, recessions, depressions, and other major economic events. Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move marketsâ€"whether it's the belief that tech stocks can only go up, that housing prices never fall, or that some firms are too big to fail. Whether true or false, stories like theseâ€"transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social mediaâ€"drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that by laying the foundation for a way of understanding how stories help propel economic events that have had led to war, mass unemployment, and increased inequality. The stories people tellâ€"about economic confidence or panic, housing booms, the American dream, or Bitcoinâ€"affect economic outcomes. Narrative Economics explains how we can begin to take these stories seriously. The result may be Robert Shiller's most important book to date.

作者简介：

Robert J. Shiller is a Nobel Prizeâ€"winning economist, the author of the New York Times bestseller Irrational Exuberance, and the coauthor, with George A. Akerlof, of Phishing for Phools and Animal Spirits, among other books (all Princeton). He is Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and a regular contributor to the New York Times. He lives in New Haven, Connecticut. Twitter @RobertJShiller

书友短评：

@ 你来人间一趟 收获是学到了新概念，叙事经济学，结合了众多学科包括经济学，心理学，社会学和人类学，核心是关注人们对事物的讲述能够影响经济行为和决策，很多叙事以相似但又不同，如流行病学中的病毒变异后反复发生流行的方式一样，反复在历史中重现并引起群体反应并影响人们的经济行为并产生经济后果，这反复出现的相似的叙事形成了叙事星座，也是个有趣的新概念。不过尽管概念有趣，但是能基于叙事经济学对未来人们可能的经济行为做出预测其结果的可信度有多少我是持怀疑态度的。 @ 某然 想法其实挺简单，在传统经济理论中加入行为学因素。是个应景的理论，因为随着科技发展，消息的传播越来越快。一句话概括全书: thought viruses are responsible for many of the changes we observe in economic activities, and it's gonna come again, again and again. 这本书写得不咋的，但充分激发了我学习病理学等自然科学的热情。感觉未来传统学科的第二春也只能来自跨学科交融的突变(mutation)了。以及，得流量者得天下啊。 @ Liredeslivres 人们听到、共同相信、传播并作出相应决策的那些流行叙事，可能给股票、债券乃至整个经济带给超乎你想象的实质影响。希勒教授通过回顾近一百多年的美国经济，列举了一些常见的经典叙事，比如机器取代人工如何影响了大萧条，08经济危机前对房市的叙事变化，比特币的兴起，特朗普的言论发酵。在后疫情时代，一些故事、新闻、观点，无论真假，总是能在短时间内快速传播并泛滥，成为人们的“共识”，这本书可以说再次预言了一些现象。作者本身擅长从人的非理性行为入手分析与经济的关联，这次跨学科的探讨、借鉴流行病的模型也是提供了新视角，当然理论与案例为主，没有方法论与解决措施，容易引人诟病。书中重点看看几个关键命题和案例就行，如果嫌文字废话多、节约时间可以直接看他的同名耶鲁网课，coursera上就有。 @ Monica Evana 收获是学到了新概念，叙事经济学，结合了众多学科包括经济学，心理学，社会学和人类学，核心是关注人们对事物的讲述能够影响经济行为和决策，很多叙事以相似但又不同，如流行病学中的病毒变异后反复发生流行的方式一样，反复在历史中重现并引起群体反应并影响人们的经济行为并产生经济后果，这反复出现的相似的叙事形成了叙事星座，也是个有趣的新概念。不过尽管概念有趣，但是能基于叙事经济学对未来人们可能的经济行为做出预测其结果的可信度有多少我是持怀疑态度的。 @ 渔夫 经典中的经典。 @ 冲昏了头 Narratives come from creative minds or from people who are looking around further away and remembering things that happened before.

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